The Rookie Likely to be Renewed for Season 4 in 2021

The Rookie is facing his toughest challenge yet. Season 3 which started airing in January 2021, gets high viewership (up 3-8% compared to last year). This is a very positive sign that the show is likely going to get renewed by ABC, but viewer satisfaction scores are down significantly (from 5 to 25% based on the episode) versus the scores obtained last year.

The Rookie used to be one of the most consistent TV series with viewer ratings of at least 80%. However, in 2021, some episodes have received lower ratings, with the worst being the “True Crime” episode which even made some fans upset. The “True Crime” episode received 3.7/10 ratings only on IMDB.

Official status: The Rookie Is Not Yet Officially Cancelled or Renewed for Season 4. We are still waiting for a final decision from ABC. The Rookie is not yet cancelled or renewed for the 2021-2022 TV season.

Renewal chances: 73% (Likely to be renewed)

Check out our renewal scorecard below for the Rookie Season 4.

TVscorecards provides the latest status updates on renewal & cancellations for TV series. As of today, ABC has NOT yet confirmed if season 4 of The Rookie is approved. Our data analyst at TVscorecards keeps track of hundreds of data points to estimate renewal chances for each TV series. We calculate a “Renewal Score” that predicts if a show will be renewed or not.

What are the Factors that Could Help The Rookie be Renewed for Season 4?

The Rookie could be renewed based on the following:

Viewership is stable in a challenging COVID environment: viewership is the primary driver of renewal decisions by TV networks. The Rookie has a loyal base of bans that enjoy the action-packed series on ABC & Hulu. The latest season currently being broadcasted in 2021 (Season 3) started off on an uncertain note (down from last year) but in the most recent episodes, viewership has been trending up with a 3-8% increase on average versus last year’s episodes. This is a big gain in contrast to most TV series that have lost viewership in 2021.

Several TV series have seen a general downward trend in their viewership but The Rookie is trending in the right direction with consistently more than 3.4 million viewers watching each episode on ABC. This is a good sign that there will be strong interest for season 4 from the existing viewerbase.

Why Would ABC Cancel The Rookie?

Viewers’ satisfaction scores are down 15% versus last year. We have observed several signals that puts the show at risk of getting cancelled with no season 4. The main factor is a significant downward trend in viewer scores which are down by an average of 15% per episode versus last year. This is a significant drop and could be a sign of an upcoming decline in viewership for the end of season 3. If this happens and episodes continue to deliver an inconsistent performance in viewership scores, ABC could announce the cancellation of the show for next year.

We will be watching the trend closely as season 3 unfolds. If the last episodes of this season show a decrease in viewership in the last epsiodes, we believe that season 4 would be at risk of getting cancelled.

The current season is not seeing the same uplift as last year. It was a very easy decision for ABC to renew the show last year: season 2 of The Rookie had just ended on a high note in the last episodes, with viewership increasing from 3.6 million viewers in the first half of the season to exactly 5.0 million viewers in the second half of the season. The Rookie was simply one the biggest success stories of the year, both in terms of increase in viewership and satisfaction scores. The current season is slightly down year over year at 3.7 million viewers, and has not seen an uplift in viewership in the second part of the season. ABC is now facing a much more difficult decision to renew or cancel The Rookie Season 4.

The series still has a strong loyal fan base and the scores remain relatively high. As a result, we still believe ABC will renew The Rookie for a new season in 2021-2022, and the show will not get cancelled.

Post a comment below to let us know what you think. Should ABC renew The Rookie for season 4?

Renewal/cancellation Status: Likely Renewed for Season 4

TVscorecards user score: 92%

About this show:

The Rookie season 3's premiere date is January 3rd, 2021.

Starting over isn't easy, especially for small-town guy John Nolan (Nathan Fillion) who, after a life-altering incident, is pursuing his dream of being a Los Angeles police officer. As the force's oldest rookie, he's met with skepticism from some higher-ups who see him as just a walking midlife crisis. If he can't keep up with the young cops and the criminals, he'll be risking lives including his own. But if he can use his life experience, determination and sense of humor to give him an edge, he may just become a success in this new chapter of his life. "The Rookie" stars Nathan Fillion as John Nolan, Mekia Cox as Nyla Harper, Alyssa Diaz as Angela Lopez, Richard T. Jones as Sergeant Wade Grey, Titus Makin Jr. as Jackson West, Melissa O'Neil as Lucy Chen and Eric Winter as Tim Bradford. Alexi Hawley is writer and executive producer. Mark Gordon, Nathan Fillion, Michelle Chapman, Jon Steinberg, Bill Norcross, Terence Paul Winter, and Rob Bowman are executive producers on the series. "The Rookie" is a co-production with Entertainment One (eOne) and ABC Studios.